Beyond America: On the Arab states, their security needs.
Arab states can no longer depend on the U.S. for security needs.
Donald Trump’s threat to bomb Oman, a long-standing American ally in the Persian Gulf, reflects both his administration’s deepening frustration with the war against Iran and Washington’s declining influence in the region. This is the second time that the U.S. leader has threatened to attack Oman, which hosted talks between Washington and Tehran before he launched the war on February 28. When Mr. Trump backed down from a threatened escalation after 13 days of bombing on Iran in July, he said the U.S. and Iran were close to a deal on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which was closed by Iran after it was attacked. But Iran never said that it had agreed to a deal with the U.S. over the Strait and instead issued several demands, including releasing frozen funds and issuing sanctions relief, as preconditions for any agreement. Ever since, Oman, under U.S. influence, has been talking to Iran seeking a settlement. As Iran, which survived two rounds of U.S. bombings, refused to offer major concessions, the U.S.’s frustration with Oman has deepened. Mr. Trump has repeatedly claimed that the Strait of Hormuz was open, but traffic through the waterway, through which one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil passed before the war, is nowhere near its pre-war levels.
The war has raised questions about America’s regional security strategy and its commitment to the security of its allies. Over the years the U.S. had built military bases across the Persian Gulf. However, Tehran has turned these bases into a liability by repeatedly striking them and their host countries. At least 15 American bases, including the Fifth Fleet Headquarters in Bahrain, are either damaged or destroyed, which has substantially reduced the U.S.’s strategic presence. But Mr. Trump does not seem to grasp the seriousness of the situation. Instead of reassuring the allies, he is now threatening to bomb them because they are not able to deliver on his push for a face-saving deal with Iran. From day one of the war, his threats and rhetoric did little to advance America’s strategic goals or deter Iran. But Mr. Trump, stuck deep in the Persian sands, appears unable to change tack. Whether he acknowledges America’s growing limitations in West Asia or not, countries in the region confront a new strategic reality: the foundations of the old security architecture have been shaken. In their hour of need, American bases have turned out to be a liability. They should also recognise that the decades-old policy of containing Iran has failed. To ensure their own security and regional stability, the Persian Gulf countries need to look beyond the American security umbrella and lay the foundations for a new regional order, shaped by a cold peace between the Arab states and Iran.