Far from over: On the U.S.-Iran conflict.
Iran and the U.S. must address the trust deficit for their talks to progress.
It took only 20 days for the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU), which promised to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and launch talks about outstanding issues, including Iran’s nuclear programme, to start unravelling. On Tuesday night, the U.S. carried out sweeping air strikes in Iran after three tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran struck American bases in Kuwait and Bahrain after which Mr. Trump declared that the ceasefire was over. While he is known for making exaggerated claims, the current crisis poses the biggest challenge to the peace process since the June 17 MoU. The crisis did not emerge overnight. From the outset, the agreement had three major sticking points — Israel’s war in Lebanon; Iran’s access to its frozen funds and the status of the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran sees Israel’s refusal to withdraw from southern Lebanon, along with Washington’s push for a parallel trilateral framework involving the U.S., Lebanon and Israel, as violations of the spirit of the MoU. And, despite talks, Iran has yet to get access to its frozen funds. Finally, Iran appears determined to assert control over the Strait. It has opened a “safe passage route” along its coast, while the U.S. is backing an alternative route along Oman’s coast.
Iran fears that the U.S. is trying to strip away the leverage it established over the Strait during the war by promoting an alternative route. The U.S. does not want Iran to emerge as the sole custodian of a strategic waterway. These conflicting positions trigger skirmishes, further undermining the MoU. What Mr. Trump, who senses strategic defeat, is trying to do is to mount economic and military pressure on Tehran to change its position on the Strait. He can continue his air campaign, but his years-long maximum pressure and 40 days of bombing have done little to alter Iran’s negotiating positions. If he returns to war over Hormuz, Iran’s stance on its nuclear programme — still unaddressed — would only get hardened. If war resumes, it would be bad news for the whole West Asia region and the entire global economy. Mr. Trump is at a strategic dead end, and instead of digging deeper, should stick to his way-out road map — the MoU. An obstacle in the peace process is the complete absence of trust. Mr. Trump’s public tirades and abuses against Iran’s leadership and hyperbolic threats, which are detached from ground realities, are not helping his cause. Equally, if Iran continues targeting commercial vessels, it risks being seen as an aggressor rather than a victim. Both sides should address the trust deficit, resolve the sticking points in the MoU and begin serious talks about the outstanding issues for a final settlement.